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Monday, February 11, 2019

actual cause and effect relation

Do distinguish the difference between an actual cause and effect relation and a simple correlation (without a cause and effect). To do so, think about a possibility of (1) just a coincidence, (2) a relationship based on another (or other) variable(s), and (3) an inverse cause and effect (cause and effect are the other way around).

(2) A confounding factor could affect both (seeming) cause and effect simultaneously; in that case, the deceptive cause and effect actually do not have the relationship.

To avoid (1), (2), and (3), counterfactual thinking is an important approach although a counter-fact cannot be observed; it has to be estimated.

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