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Thursday, September 10, 2015

On The Brink / Hank Paulson

This is one of the best books ever to review the Financial Crisis in 2007-2008. The author, Henry Merritt "Hank" Paulson, Jr. served as the 74th United States Secretary of the Treasury from July 10, 2006 to January 20, 2009 during the George W. Bush administration (2001-2008). Before that, he had served as the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs.

Lessons learned:
1. Global economic imbalance (High consumption in the U.S. backed by high savings of China, Japan, and other countries)
2. Financial regulations do not catch up with the progress of the financial industry
3. Too much leverage, low capital and liquidity.
4. Too-big-to-fail financial institutions


On The Brink: Inside the race to stop the collapse of the global financial system
Hank Paulson


Sunday, August 23, 2015

The Cartoon Introduction to Economics by Yoram Bauman

The Cartoon Introduction to Economics by Yoram Bauman

These books by Yoram Bauman are two of the best micro- and macro-economics books ever, not only for students/junior financial professionals, but also the experienced.

[Amazon.com]

The Cartoon Introduction to Economics: Volume One: Microeconomics [Kindle]
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BUT8NZO?creativeASIN=B00BUT8NZO&linkCode=w00&linkId=VX6FKKW5QFA56KZV&ref_=as_sl_pc_qf_sp_asin_til&tag=yoshisatoh-20

The Cartoon Introduction to Economics: Volume Two: Macroeconomics [Kindle]
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BQMKCPO?creativeASIN=B00BQMKCPO&linkCode=w00&linkId=JAYIXW3JKKFSLFH6&ref_=as_sl_pc_qf_sp_asin_til&tag=yoshisatoh-20


[Amazon.co.jp]

Thursday, July 16, 2015

The Innovation Secrets of Steve Jobs: Insanely Different Principles for Breakthrough Success / Carmine Gallo

The Innovation Secrets of Steve Jobs: Insanely Different Principles for Breakthrough Success
Carmine Gallo

The Innovation Secrets of Steve Jobs: Insanely Different Principles for Breakthrough Success



  • Innovation is a new way to move things forward. It’s something which makes a difference in a good way and makes our lives better.
  • To make innovation happen, you need to communicate with people and get them involved.
  • Innovation is one of the most important things to maintain or promote economic prosperity. Innovation can realize higher productivity / compensation / corporate earnings / employment rates and new products. It could increase the likelihood of economic growth.
  • You need to continuously adapt your knowledge / experiences to changes of the world.
  • To differentiate yourself/products/services from others, you have to ask yourself: “What should I do for our clients/customers so that they can easily do their jobs. That’s what innovations are for.
  • Innovation and invent are different; they complement each other. Invent means designing and/or developing of new products/services/process. Innovation starts from a creative idea, and finally reach to the invent, products / services, process, or procedures.
  • Limited numbers of people can be inventors while everybody can be an innovator.
  • Innovation is something ordinary people do on a daily basis for their better lives.
  • If you do not want to put your destiny / future into someone’s hands, then you have to make a decision by yourself, especially when somebody does not think about your own benefit.


  1. Do What You Love. Think differently about your career.
  2. Put a Dent in the Universe. Think differently about your vision.
  3. Kick Start Your Brain. Think differently about how you think.
  4. Sell Dreams, Not Products. Think differently about your customers.
  5. Say No to 1,000 Things. Think differently about design.
  6. Create Insanely Great Experiences. Think differently about your brand experience.
  7. Master the Message. Think differently about your story.


  • For prosperity of a country, you have to have more start-ups rather than propping up troubled businesses. Start-ups are for the smart, creative, and someone who take risks with a passion. To take risks, courage and some craziness are needed.
  • For someone who are too risk-averse and status-quo type:
    • Do clarify what you really want to do.
    • Do not always avoid responsibilities / risks.
    • Do not overly emphasize on the continuity / consistency. Do adapt to changes.


Saturday, June 27, 2015

What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets / Michael Sandel

What Money Can't Buy: The Moral Limits of Markets
Michael Sandel

My understanding and thoughts are as follows:

Democracy does not necessarily need or even realize perfect equality, but people should share their common lives. After those who are from different origins and social status encounter, have conflicts of interest, work out differences, and accept the difference in everyday life, they finally respect "bonum commune."

Issues of markets are how we want to live together.

[A] Markets are powerful information gathering devices which can efficiently and effectively collect diffused and/or hidden information in a timely manner. It also "digests" future forecasts. Pressure from bureaucrats, politicians, and a part of market participants cannot distort information in the long run. It is the most efficient system to generate and assign goods / money.

[B] However, if evertthing is traded in markets and the way of thinking in markets intrude into every activity, it makes people nervous. It is due to the concepts of "enforcement," "unfairness," "corruption," and "decadence." Some people believe in virtue of a moralistic kind.

The difference between what we can buy and what we cannot buy:
[A] Something with marketable and economic value. Private assets.
[B] Something with non-market and moral value. Public assets.
Market value can possibly squeeze out non-maket, moral norm.

We should not heavily depend on moral value, that is, altruism, generosity, solidarity, and civic duties; these virtues are precious resource which can be easily deleted.
Markets are dependent on personal egoism and self-interest. It avoids using limited virtues. If you want to save limited precious resources, you have to be less dependent on moral and more dependent on markets.

A modern political controversy is mostly sparked between the following two kinds of people:
[A] Free-marketeers
[B] Those who insist that if and only if the society assures fairness, the selection in the markets is freely doable on an equal footing.

In the era when the gap widens, if everything is valued and traded in markets, those who are rich get much more rich and those who are poor become much poorer. It could be rare that people from different jobs and social status meet.

It is necessary to think and ask what kind of society we would like to live in.


Sunday, November 30, 2014

Confirmation Bias

People tend to see what they want to see while ignore what they don't want to see. In behavioral finance, it is called "confirmation bias."

Face objective facts ("inconvenient truth") while ignore subjective opinions (noises, distorted thinking by personal desires).

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

"The 5 Steps Close-Up" from the page 26 of "Principles" by Ray Dalio

The 5 Steps Close-Up
1) Setting Goals

You can have virtually anything what you want, but you can't have anything you want.

To achieve your goals, you have to prioritize, and that includes rejecting good alternatives.

It is important not to confuse "goals" and "desires."

Goals are the things that you really want to achieve, while desires are things you want that can prevent you from reaching your goals.

Avoid setting goals based on what you think you can achieve.

Set goals without yet assessing whether or not you can achieve them.

Unlike in school, in life you don't have to come up with all the right answers. You can ask the people around you for help--or even ask them to do the things you don't do well.

In other words, there is almost no reason not to succeed if you take the attitude of 1) total flexibility--good answers can come from anyone or anywhere (and in fact, as I have mentioned, there are more good answers "out there" than there are in you) and 2) total accountability: regardless of where the good answers come from, it's your job to find them.



2) Identifying and Not Tolerating Problems

The more painful the problem, the louder it is screaming. In order to be successful, you have to 1) perceive problems and 2) not tolerate them.

If you don't dentify your problems, you won't solve them, so you won't move forward toward achieving your goals. As a result, it is essential to bring problems to the surface.

Most people don't like to do this. But most successful people know that they have to do this.

The most common reasons people don't successfully identify their problems are generally rooted either in a lack of will or in a lack of talent or skill:
  • They can be "harsh realities" that are unpleasant to look at, so people often subconsciously put them "out of sight" so they will be "out of mind."
  • Thinking about problems that are difficult to solve can produce anxiety that stands in the way of progress.
  • People often worry more about appearing to not have problems than about achieving their desired results, and therefore avoid recognizing that their own mistakes and/or weaknesses are causing the problems. (omitted)
  • Sometimes people are simply not perceptive enough to see the problems.
  • Some people are unable to distinguish big problems from small ones. Since nothing is perfect, it is impossible to identify an infinite number of problems everywhere. If you are unable to distinguish the big problems from the little ones, you can't "successfully" (i.e., in a practical way) identify problems.
When identifying problems, it is important to remain centered and logical.

While it can be tempting to react emotionally to problems and seek sympathy or blame others, this accomplishes nothing.

Remember that identifying problems is like finding gems embedded in puzzles; if you solve the puzzles you will get the gems that will make your life much better. Doing this continuously will lead to your rapid evolution. So, if you're logical, you really should get excited about finding problems because identifying them will bring you closer to your goals.



3) Diagnosing the Problems

You will be much more effective if you focus on diagnosis and design rather than jumping to solutions.

You must be calm and logical.

You must get at the root causes.

Identifying the real root causes of your problems is essential because you can eliminate your problems only by removing their root causes. In other words, you must understand, accept, and successfully deal with reality in order to move toward your goals.

Recognizing and learning from one's mistakes and the mistakes of others who affect outcomes is critical to eliminating problems.

Many problems are caused by people's mistakes. But people often find it difficult to identify and accept their own mistakes. Sometimes it's because they're blind to them, but more often it's because ego and shortsightedness make discovering their mistakes and weaknesses painful.

(omitted) More than anything else, what differentiate people who live up to their potential from those who don't is a willingness to look at themselves and others objectively.

I call the pain that comes from looking at yourself and others objectively "growing pains," because it is the pain that accompanies personal growth. No pain, no gain. Of course, anyone who really understands that no one is perfect and that these discoveries are essential for personal growth finds that these discoveries elicit "growing pleasures." But it seems to be in our nature to overly focus on short-term gratification rather than long-term satisfaction--on first-order rather than second- or third-order consequences--so the connection between this behavior and the rewards it brings doesn't come naturally. However, if you can make this connection, such moments will begin to elicit pleasure rather than pain. It is similar to how exercise eventually becomes pleasurable for people who hardwire the connection between exercise and its benefits.

Remember that:
    Pain + Reflection = Progress

(omitted) There is no getting around the fact that achieving success requires getting at the root causes of all important problems, and people's mistakes and weaknesses are sometimes the root causes. So to be successful, you must be willing to look at your own behavior and the behavior of others as possible causes of problems.

The most important qualities for successfully diagnosing problems are logic, the ability to see multiple possibilities, and the willingness to touch people's nerves to overcome the ego barriers that stand in the way of truth.



4) Designing the Plan (Determining the Solutions)

(omitted) most of the movement towards your goals comes from designing how to remove the root causes of your problems. Problems are great because they are very specific impediments, so you know that you will move forward if you can identify and eliminate their root causes.

Creating a design is like writing a movie script in that you visualize who will do what through time in order to achieve the goal.

Visualize the goal or problem standing in your way, and then visualize practical solutions. When designing solutions, the objective is to change how you do things so that problems don't recur--or recur so often. Think about each problem indivisually, and as the product of root causes--like the outcomes procured by a machine. Then think about how the machine should be changed to produce good outcomes rather than bad ones. There are typically many paths toward achieving your goals, and you need to find only one way of them that works, so it's almost always doable.

But an effective design requires thinking things through and visualizing how things will come together and unfold over time. It's essential to visualize the story of where you have been (or what you have done) that has led you to where you are now and what will happen sequentially in the future to lead you to your goals. You should visualize this plan though time, like watching a movie that connects your past, present, and future.

Then write down the plan so you don't lose sight of it, and include who needs to do what and when. The list of tasks falls out from this story (i.e., the plan), but they are not the same. The story, or plan, is what connects your goals to the tasks. For you to succeed, you must not lose sight of the goals or the story while focusing on the tasks; you must constantly refer back and forth.

When designing your plan, think about the timeliness of various interconnected tasks. (omitted) This is an iterative process, (omitted)

Being as specific as possible (e.g., specifying who will do what and when) allows you to visualize how the design will work at both a big-picture level and in detail. It will also give you and others the to-do lists and target dates that will help direct you.

People successful with this stage have an ability to visualize and a practical understanding of how things really work. Remember, you don't have to process all these qualities if you have someone to help you with the ones you are missing.

Remember: Designing precedes doing! The design will give you your to-do list (i.e., the tasks).



5) Doing the Tasks


Next, you and the others you need to rely on have to do the tasks that will get you to your goals. Great planners who don’t carry out their plans go nowhere.

… it is critical to know each day what you need to do and have the discipline to do it. People with good work habits have to-do lists that are reasonably prioritized, and they make themselves do what needs to be done. By contrast, people with poor work habits almost randomly react to the stuff that comes at them, or they can’t bring themselves to do the things they need to do but don’t like to do (or are unable to do).

You need to know whether you (and others) are following the plan, so you should establish clear benchmarks.

As with the other steps, if you aren’t good at this step, get help.

Design and tasks have no purpose other than to achieve your goals. Said differently, goals are the sole purpose of designs and tasks.


5-Step Process: Qualities Needed

  1. Set Goals: Higher-level thinking, synthesis, visualization, prioritization
  2. Identify and don’t tolerate problems: Perception, intolerance of badness (regardless of severity), synthesis
  3. Diagnose the problems to root causes: Hyper-logical, willing to “touch the nerve,” seeing multiple possibilities
  4. Design a plan for eliminating the problems: Visualization, practicality, creativity
  5. Do what is set out in the plan: Self-discipline, good work habits, results orientation, proactivity


In a nutshell, my 5-Step process for achieving what you want is:
(Your) Values -->1) Goals -->2) Problems -->3) Diagnoses -->4) Designs -->5) Tasks

As you design and implement your plan to achieve your goals, you may find it helpful to consider that:

  • Life is like a game where you seek to overcome the obstacles that stand in the way of achieving your goals;
  • You get better at this game through practice;
  • The game consists of a series of choices that have consequences;
  • You can’t stop the problems and choices from coming at you, so it’s better to learn how to deal with them;
  • You have the freedom to make whether choices you want, though it’s best to be mindful of their consequences;
  • The pain of problems is a call to find solutions rather than a reason for unhappiness and inaction, so it’s silly, pointless, and harmful to be upset at the problems and choices that come at you (though it’s understandable);
  • We all evolve at different paces, and it’s up to you to decide the pace at which you want to evolve (It’s best to spend most of your time in the stretch zone, rather than comfort or panic zone.);
  • The process goes better if you are as accurate as possible in all aspects, including assessing your strengths and weaknesses and adapting to them.


… we must be hyperrealistic and hypertruthful.

…and the biggest impediment is people’s reluctance to face their own mistakes and weaknesses and those of others.

Bridgewater is based on the belief that both meaningful work and meaningful relationships are required to be happy and successful. So, our relationships, like our work, must be excellent; as a result, we expect people to be extremely considerate and caring with each other. This does not mean being soft on each other, especially if that means avoiding harsh realities to avoid causing discomfort. It means true caring, which requires recognizing and successfully dealing with our realities, whatever they are.



Underlines are added by the author.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Are we living in the law of the jungle? The answer is NO.

Question:

Does a winner really take all? Is the weak destined to die anyway? The strong should survive, right?
Is this true for animals?
What about human beings? There're still lots of wars / disputes in some parts of the world, but if we look at developed countries, the weak is protected by wealth redistribution through taxation. Considering natural laws, only great genes should survive - but actually not for human beings. Let's forget about human rights.


Answer:

The natural world is not necessarily a place where "the strong survives while the weak doesn't." The weak does not necessarily be killed by the strong while the strong cannot always survive.

Tigers are stronger than rabbits. Tigers almost go extinct while rabbits are common all over the world.


Natural laws:
(A) An individual creature is destined to die (or be killed) anyway.
(B) Within a species, it is the survival-of-the-fittest world.

(A) A dog might be alive for only two years while another dog can live for ten years. But both dogs die anyway. The length of life does not matter.

(B) A creature which can adapt to the environment (and also environmental changes) should be able to survive. "Survive" doesn't only mean "a creature lives longer," rather, it means the best possible genes might be passed on to the next generation.

A feature of the nature is that "there're many, almost infinite, ways of adapting to the environment." Strong, big, fast, high-rates-of-birth, and active animals do not necessarily survive; for instance, sloth and deep-sea organism take survival strategy of reduced metabolism. There're wide variety of animals. Adapting to the environment (and also environmental changes) does really matter even though they are "weak" in a sense.

The survival-of-the-fittest does not mean "a creature survives;" Rather, that means the best possible genes might be passed on to the next generation.

Living is to produce offspring. Also, since wide variety of ways of adaptation exists, how to adapt to environment(tal changes) is dependent on survival strategies of a species.

A survival strategy of human beings is sociality. By building advanced and functional societies, an individual is protected by its nature of complementary interaction. An individual might not be good enough to survive in the long run (''the weak"), but by letting him/her survive, the probability of survival of species (human beings as a whole, but not individuals) could be maximized.

How many individuals do they live? How many "weak" individuals does the society can have? It is dependent on the power of the society. Human being can have more and more people who might not be held in earlier societies.

As a survival strategy of one species, human beings' strategy is successful without doubt.

The best genes in any circumstances do not exist; one gene might be the best for a certain circumstance while others could be the best in a different circumstance.

We cannot accurately estimate what kind of genes is the best for human beings. We cannot forecast what kind of environment will exist in the future. So, having as wide variety of genes as possible is rational as a survival strategy of a species. Different genes could work as an insurance under a certain environment.

No single individual can survive in the jungle of the Amazon; in nature, all human beings are the "weak" without our society of human beings. The "weak" human beings get together and let more and more "weak" individuals live. It's the survival strategy of human beings.

In social sciences, both fighting and coordination are parts of human beings' societies; however, coordination is essential because a species of human beings cannot survive without coordination.

Again, we all are the "weak" and letting the "weak" be alive is the survival strategy of human beings.

Deep Learning (Regression, Multiple Features/Explanatory Variables, Supervised Learning): Impelementation and Showing Biases and Weights

Deep Learning (Regression, Multiple Features/Explanatory Variables, Supervised Learning): Impelementation and Showing Biases and Weights ...